Victory Day in Delhi signals a changing India–Afghanistan–Pakistan equation

“Enemy of my enemy is my friend” may be an oversimplification, but it captures the reality of geopolitics: nations build relationships around interests, security and strategic leverage.

India–Afghanistan relations offer an interesting example of how geopolitical equations can change. From the turbulent decades following the 1980s—when Afghanistan became engulfed in conflict and Pakistan acquired considerable influence over developments there—the regional landscape has undergone a significant transformation.

Today, relations between Kabul and Islamabad are increasingly strained, marked by recurring border conflicts and differences over security. At the same time, Afghanistan is seeking economic reconstruction, greater regional engagement and alternatives to excessive dependence on Pakistan. For India, this creates space for pragmatic re-engagement based on connectivity, development, trade and shared strategic interests.

The reopening of the Afghan Embassy in New Delhi and the gradual restoration of diplomatic engagement are therefore developments worth watching closely.

On August 17, I attended the first public “Victory Day” reception hosted by Afghanistan’s current administration at the Embassy of Afghanistan in New Delhi, marking five years since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul in August 2021.

The reception was hosted by His Excellency Mufti Noor Ahmad Noor, Afghan Chargé d’Affaires in New Delhi. Shri. Anand Prakash, Joint Secretary for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran (PAI) at India’s Ministry of External Affairs, attended as the Chief Guest. The event, marked by religious themes, was attended by diplomats and representatives from many countries.

Whatever one’s assessment of the Taliban administration, the geopolitical significance of Afghanistan cannot be ignored. A more independent Afghanistan, capable of maintaining relationships with multiple regional powers rather than remaining within any one country’s strategic orbit, could substantially alter the balance of power in South Asia.

For India, engagement with Afghanistan is increasingly about strategic realism: maintaining influence in a critical neighbouring region, supporting stability and development, and ensuring that Afghan territory does not once again become a platform for forces hostile to Indian interests.

In geopolitics, alliances are rarely permanent. Interests, however, have remarkable staying power.